Beware of the first reports from Pakistan

Beware of the first reports from Pakistan.

This evening it is being reported everywhere that Al-Zawahiri was possibly or likely, depending on the exuberance of the source, killed by an attack launched from an America/CIA UAV. In all likelihood this attack was a hellfire missile launched from the Predator class of UAV’s. If these reports are true than it is wonderful news deserving of the wall-to-wall coverage that it is likely to receive. After all many, including myself view Zawahiri as the real operational brains within Al-Qaeda leadership.

Anyway, at the same time everyone would be well advised to hold off on the celebrations. As I have discussed recently here on Pakistan has a nasty tendency to overate the individuals that they help us take out. Now my skepticism alone shouldn’t be cause to put away the party favors however their pattern of exaggerations and outright lies gives me serious pause. Than there is something especially suspicious in the reports about this attack. Below I have attached the ABC news story in part because it was the one posted on Drudge and therefore is likely one most will be familiar with, however the issue that I wish to point out is mentioned in many if not most of the accounts. It concerns what the villagers said about “seeing an unmanned plane circling the area for the last few”. Now for a moment place yourself in the perspective of one of the most wanted terrorists in the world, which under this scenario is so desperate for refuge that you are hiding in a small dusty village along Pakistan-Afghanistan border (A fact that I personal dispute based on my own research and analysis) and suddenly in the sky above this little dusty town appears an American UAV or for that matter any UAV. Are you just going to sit around for several days sipping your tea as an instrument that has been used several times to track and kill some members of our terrorist organization just hoping that it will go away? Or are you more likely to find the next express camel line out of dodge before you get a Hellfire missile or the butt of an American rifle in the hands of a Seal, Marine, Etc. up the side of your head. Throw in Pakistan’s dismal record of lies and over exaggerating about who they have found or killed in the last 18 months to 2 years and you can see my hesitancy to start the celebration just yet. Personally I really hope that I am wrong in my assessment of these reports, in fact I must admit to being a little excited when I first heard the report even with my skepticism of Pakistan and the intelligence organization which carries its water in Washington. However the account of the villagers on the circling of the UAV really brought the cynicism right back with a vengeance, which when added with my own analysis that points to Zawahiri being near a major city, at least within the last 4 weeks, makes me really want to wait until this has been confirmed at least twice.

Pakistani Military Sources Say Zawahiri May Be Dead

Forensic Tests to Reveal Fate of al Qaeda Number Two

By BRIAN ROSS

Jan. 13, 2006 — - Today, according to Pakistani military sources, U.S. aircraft attacked a compound known to be frequented by high-level al Qaeda operatives. Pakistani officials tell ABC News that al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's top lieutenant, may have been among them.

U.S. intelligence for the last few days indicated that Zawahiri might have been in the location or about to arrive, although there is still no confirmation from U.S. officials that he was among the victims.

The attack took place early this morning Pakistan time in a small village a few miles from the border with Afghanistan.

Villagers described seeing an unmanned plane circling the area for the last few days and then bombs falling in the early morning darkness.

Eighteen people were killed, according to the villagers who said women and children were among the fatalities.

But Pakistani officials tell ABC News that five of those killed were high-level al Qaeda figures, and their bodies are now undergoing forensic tests for positive identification.

Officials say Zawahiri was known to have used safe houses in this area last winter and was believed to be in the area again this winter.

Zawahiri, who appeared just last week in a new videotaped message, had increasingly been taking the operational reins of al Qaeda, and is thought by U.S. officials to be the current true mastermind of the terrorist group.

Pakistani officials tell ABC News that the bodies of the five suspected al Qaeda figures will be recovered at first light in Pakistan, but it will still take a day or two for any kind of positive identification. U.S. officials in Washington did not comment.

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