Analysis of the January 6th 2006 Al-Zawahiri Video

Analysis of the January 6^th 2006 Al-Zawahiri Video

The video released by Al-Qaeda on January 6, 2006 with Ayman Al-Zawahiri appearing in front of a brown background with a rifle behind him is of particular concern given the pattern of Al-Zawahiri videos as it relates to Al-Qaeda operations.[i] In short, these types of videos seem to be released in sets of two with the second of the pair being followed by an attack launched outside of a major combat zone (i.e. Iraq and Afghanistan) within 30 days. This pattern has held for at least 3 of Al-Qaeda last large scale attacks, since the fall of 2004 including the attack on the US Consulate in Jeddah, the London subway/bus bombings, and the most recent Suicide attack in Bali. This most recent video is likely a signal that a large-scale operation is about to be launched within the next 30 days, the question is where.

An answer to this question might come from a threat that was posted on an Islamic forum linked to Al-Qaeda.[ii] It was posted under the name of Saif Al-Adel/Adil, and refers to an operation that will be undertaken soon by the Abu-Hafs Al-Masri Brigades.[iii] This is particularly important because within Al-Qaeda Saif Al-Adel/Adil is the head of Al-Qaeda military committee within the Shura Council a position analogues to the Secretary of Defense within the US government which means that Al-Adel/Adil answers directly to Bin Laden and Zawahiri. In addition, Al-Adel/Adil is the direct superior in terms of command to Zarqawi who is believed to head the Abu-Hafs Al-Masri Brigades. Furthermore, the Abu-Hafs Al-Masri Brigades is one of the primary front names for operation in both Europe and North America. As large scale operations in either of these regions requires the direct approval of Bin Laden or Zawahiri the command path for such an order would most likely be from them to Al-Adel than to Zarqawi and finally to assets in the area meant for attack. Hence the possible importance of this specific threat given that it references both Al-Adel and the Abu-Hafs Al-Masri Brigades. It should be noted that this very pattern can been seen now in relations to the London attacks of July 7^th. There was a set of two videos with the second of the set being released on June 17^th, the first was released in February. This second video was proceeded a few weeks before in May by a posting on an Islamist website from the “Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades - European division” under the title of “Letter to mujahedeen in Europe” which stated in part “We now call on the mujahedeen around the world to launch the expected attack”.[iv] This pattern seems to be mirrored in the information presented here in reference to the latest set of videos. After all you have two videos released a few months a part with a positing weeks before the second video from the Abu-Hafs Al-Masri Brigade.

The specific threat which was posted in November and likely relates to the recent vidoe states that the attack will occur in the “land of the Romans” which naturally has been seen as a reference to Italy.[v] However, it is also possible that this could be a use of coded language, after all Al-Qaeda is known to use basic coding and misdirection in many of its communications. One of Al-Qaeda’s propaganda arms, the Global Islamic Media Front (GIMF) made reference to just such an effort by indicating that Al-Qaeda earlier this year intentionally labeled Italy as their next target in order to distract the west from their real target of London in the 7/7 bombings.[vi] This could mean that such open and blatant announcement of the targeting of Italy and Europe could be misdirection. However the likelihood of this assertion of course open to analysis, however it is within the realm of possibilities that the current threat against the “Land of the Romans” is not Italy but perhaps another target, which raises the question of where they intend to strike.

One potential explanation of the term Romans comes from looking at what from a historical, political or cultural perspective that Romans could be referring to in their threat. Perhaps the three most obvious would be Rome/Italy itself, areas occupied by Rome during its imperial era, or a nation group or organization that occupies a similar position of prominence as Rome once did within the current international environment. In all likelihood, it is the third category and that inevitable brings to mind the nation most often compared to Rome in the modern world, which is the United States of America. There is evidence, which seems to support this latter is a more likely target than it may seem at first glance. One key point is that the threat references an appearance that will be made by Bin Laden following the threatened attack. Following the second anniversary of 9-11 Al-Qaeda indicated that Bin Laden would not make a new video appearance until after the next major attack on the American homeland.[vii][viii] Although since that promise did make one video appearance in the run up to the 2004 US presidential election, likely because Al-Qaeda believed that such an appearance might have influenced the outcome, however there has not been either an audio or a video message from Bin Laden for over a year. It therefore could mean that Al-Qaeda intends to release the next message after a successful large-scale operation as a means of ensuring the maximum impact of such an appearance. There is also the issue that with even a cursory examination of Washington D.C. shows countless examples of Romanesque architecture. Al-Qaeda traditionally uses descriptive yet simple codes.

Of course the threat itself could be a face value threat against Italy, after all as has been observed in previous analysis items Al-Qaeda has a tendency to go back after targets that they previously failed in their effort to attack such as the twin towers in New York and London. Also as mentioned previously Italy has been indicated on multiple occasions as a target by Al-Qaeda. In addition, the September interview video with Al-Zawahiri was reposted in November on the internet with Italian subtitles. It is reported that this was only the second time that Al-Qaeda themselves have translated the materials of their leadership into Italian.[ix]

As for the type of attack within the threat placed on the internet posting it made direct reference to two types of attacks. One type of potential attack was stated as “They have also managed to obtain a quantity of poisonous material to create bombs.”[x] Unfortunately, this portion of the threat does not seem to be very specific nor does it seem to indicate anything other than a planned explosive or possibly even a chemical attack. Another specific threat is that the members of Al-Qaeda’s Abu-Hafs Al-Masri Brigade who are part of this operation “have managed to get hold of surface-to-air missiles.”[xi] This message indicates that the weapons were procured from Chechnya, which is possible given that Zarqawi who oversees the Abu-Hafs Al-Masri Brigade also is known to have ties to Chechnya. It is even more interesting to note that it has been reported that Western intelligence officials believe that Al-Qaeda has had some of the most advanced Russian made man portal surface to air missile system (SA-18) within Europe for at least one year. These weapons were reportedly smuggled through Georgia and Turkey and were involved in a planned attack against French airliners in 2004.[xii] If these two reports involving surface to air missiles are taken together it would complete the smuggling cycle of weapons either purchased or captured in Chechnya smuggled through Georgia into Turkey and from there into Europe. These missiles have not yet been recovered and their current location is still unknown.[xiii] It is also possible that some of these weapons could then have been smuggled into North America as individuals tied to this plot are also believed to have been connected with the so called millennium bombing plot against the Los Angeles airport.[xiv] It is interesting to note that apparently the first break for authorities of this 2004 plot came from a Adnan Sadiq also known as Abu Atiya, who in addition to being a close aid of Zarqawi’s, is also thought to have been a key player within Chechnya and the surrounding region.[xv] It is also believed that Atiya was Zarqawi’s lead man for several attempts to use either chemical or biological weapons in Europe including in Italy.[xvi]

In the end, once can be an interesting anomaly, twice could be a coincidence, but three times is a pattern, which means that in all likelihood Al-Qaeda will launch a major attack sometime in the next month. As for the specific target the best available open source information has been presented with background material supporting it however there are a number of variable that are dependent upon Al-Qaeda or independent variables which could just as easily change the entire equation in terms of timing, location, and method of attack.

One final note on a purely technical point –

I conducted an examination using commercially available imaging software which revealed something potentially very interesting about the recent video. Taking a still image from the video I ran it through some various filters and other tools which revealed a very pronounced shadow behind Zawahiri. In the original image itself, the shadow is almost unnoticeable until you have seen the enhanced version, however once enhanced the shadow is very apparent. As for what this means:

Number 1 – The light source creating the shadow is to the right of Zawahiri behind the camera and in an elevated position.

Number 2 – This light source is obviously not a direct light but has been softened using professional grade video lighting resulting in a subtle shadow rather than what one might get with a direct light.

Number 3 – Using the shadows made apparent in the enhanced image, the known height of the rifle in the background, and some basic trigonometry leads to a probable height for the light source of 6 ½ to 8 ½ feet.

So taking these issues in mind one can conclude that this video was likely not shot at a clandestine location such as a cave or a hut, or even a standard sized house from the region. This is logical given that the height of the light source even at the lower end of the range places it too high for the ceilings of those types of locations. In addition, even highly portable professional equipment of the type used in this video is not easily transportable, in a clandestine manner, over rough terrain. Particularly if one adds in that the backdrop, which has been used in all of these types of videos, together with the actual camera and audio equipment, which is not visible, would make this an even more difficult operation. Furthermore, the lack of ambient light in the scene seems to indicate that this video as well as all the other previous ones, other than the August video which was clearly shot outdoors, are likely being shot in a studio setting. In fact, a similar enhancement of the November 2004 video seemed to reveal perfectly symmetrical horizontal and vertical lines behind the backdrop of the approximate size of cinder blocks. This indicates that this video and most of the previous ones are being filmed in or near a relatively large city. Below is presented the image enhancement from the most recent video.

---

[ii] “Terrorism: Italy Downplays Al-Qaeda Christmas Threat” AKI November 7, 2005

[iii] ibid.

[iv] “Police raid homes over blasts” news.au.com July 12, 2005

[v] “Terrorism: Italy Downplays Al-Qaeda Christmas Threat” op. cit.

[vi] “Al-Qaeda Mouthpiece Warns of New Jihadi Weapon” AKI November 10, 2005

[vii] “Bin Laden's next video will follow massive strike in US: Saudi weekly” Agence France Presse December 25, 2003

[viii] “The 9-11 Commission Report” US Government Printing Office July 22, 2004 Pg. 248

[ix] “Video of Al-Qaeda No. 2 Appears With Italian Subtitles” AKI November 2, 2005

[x] “Terrorism: Italy Downplays Al-Qaeda Christmas Threat” op. cit.

[xi] ibid.

[xii] “Al Qaida acquires Russian surface-to-air missiles” WorldTribune.com November 11, 2005

[xiii] ibid.

[xiv] Henry Samuel “Terror cell 'smuggled missiles into Europe'” The London Daily Telegraph October 29, 2005

[xv] “Foreign Mercenaries Active in Georgia's Pankisi Gorge” Interfax November 29, 2004

[xvi] Marc Perelman, “Arrests in France Shed Light on 'Chechen' Network of Terrorists” Forward January 30, 2004